Elections often are referendums on the voting record of an incumbent candidate. That is especially true this year, when many incumbent members of Congress have come under fire for their votes to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Their support for overturning the landmark health care law meant they supported eliminating protections for people with pre-existing conditions, a fact that many candidates have been trying to distance themselves from. Molly E. Reynolds writes for Brookings:

If James Carville were to re-write his famous 1992 quip about the economy for Democratic candidates in 2018, the races we’ve profiled—along with other evidence, like advertising data from the Wesleyan Media Project—suggest he’d make it about health care. It’s one of the most important issues in races like West Virginia and Florida. In Nevada, incumbent Republican senator Dean Heller has been vulnerable to attacks over the evolution of his position on repealing Obamacare, while in Missouri, Republican challenger Josh Hawley has been criticized for backing a lawsuit that would overturn the landmark law.

Here in Louisiana, 5 of 6 House members voted to repeal the ACA and its pre-existing condition protections, but all are expected to retain their seats in Congress. The Advocate’s Bryn Stole:

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report lists all six of Louisiana’s House seats as safe. So too do fellow election forecasting outfits like Inside Elections, FiveThirtyEight and the University of Virginia-based newsletter Sabato’s Crystal Ball. “It does seem to conflict with what we hear nationally. There’s a lot of excitement about the midterms, there’s more competitive seats nationally than usual,” said Mike Henderson, the director of LSU’s Public Policy Research Lab. “So there’s that story nationally but we’re not experiencing any of that here.”

Louisiana teachers near their breaking point
Teacher pay raises are at the top of Gov. John Bel Edwards’ 2019 legislative agenda for good reason. The state hasn’t funded an across-the-board teacher pay raise in years and state funding for K-12 schools has not kept up with inflation, as illustrated in a new report released by LBP on Monday. That means teachers (and support staff) across the state are finding it harder and harder to make ends meet. Sheridan Wall and Charlotte Bellotte with the LSU’s Manship School News Service report:

Danielle Couturier, who has a master’s degree and 16 years of experience, makes $46,000 a year. After the first of her three children was born, she had to waitress on the weekends to earn more money. “We put our blood sweat and tears and our whole hearts into this,” she said. “I don’t feel valued. I never have. But I’m OK with that because that’s not why I do it.” Teachers like Couturier have long been willing to accept being underpaid. But now many are saying enough of that. Educators in West Virginia, Kentucky, Oklahoma and Arizona reached a breaking point this year with a wave of walkouts and strikes over pay. And now, with teachers in Louisiana voicing concerns as well, Gov. John Bel Edwards’ top legislative priority is raising teacher pay by $1,800 to reach the average of just under $51,000 for Southern states.

Public charge rule would harm economy
The Trump administration’s proposal to amend the country’s longstanding “public charge” immigration rule could potentially bar millions of working-aged, aspiring immigrants in key industries from being able to come to or stay in the United States and gain permanent residency, according to an analysis from the New American Economy. The report shows that, like native-born citizens, immigrants who benefit from available assistance programs are working hard, but in low-paying jobs that make it difficult to make ends meet:

Almost 91 percent of all adults active in the labor force who would be affected by the public charge rule are employed. More than 1.4 million people likely to be affected by the public charge rule have at least some college education, including:

• More than 220,000 workers in the trade, transportation, and utilities industries,
• Almost 150,000 workers in the education and health services industries, and
• More than 125,000 workers in the professional and business service industry.

The total annual income of workers who would be affected by the public charge rule is more than $96.4 billion. Should they leave the United States, our economy would suffer negative indirect economic effects of more than $68 billion dollars.

States replace the individual mandate
While Republicans in Congress were unsuccessful in their repeated attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA), they did manage to sneak a provision to repeal the ACA’s individual mandate into their bill to cut taxes for the wealthy. Repealing the mandate means that fewer younger, healthier people are expected to enroll in marketplace plans this year, which will drive up costs for the people who remain in a marketplace plan. States can prevent this “adverse selection” by instating an individual mandate of their own – a step that several states have already taken. Jason Levitis with The Brookings Institution:

State mandates are a straightforward way to avert the negative consequences of federal mandate repeal at the state level. They can also help discourage the spread of substandard insurance coverage, facilitate state outreach to the uninsured, and serve as a source of revenue to finance other state policies aimed at improving insurance markets. Massachusetts enacted its own individual mandate in 2006 as part of the state’s major health insurance reform. More recently, New Jersey, the District of Columbia (D.C.), and Vermont have each enacted mandate legislation.

Levitis explains the basic elements of state-level mandate policy:

The key elements of mandate legislation are: (1) the coverage that qualifies; (2) the amount of penalties for not maintaining coverage; and (3) the exemptions available. States must also consider administrative mechanisms to collect mandate penalties and grant exemptions, and reporting requirements to support compliance.

Number of the Day
2,066 – Number of polling locations open until 8 p.m. today across Louisiana – find yours (and a sample ballot) here. (Source: Louisiana Secretary of State)