The intense public debate over LSU’s new “holistic” admissions policy has mostly focused on lines of authority between the state’s flagship university and the Board of Regents. But The Advocate’s Mark Ballard takes a helpful step back and looks at the state’s changing demographics, and the ways colleges are bracing for a future where there are fewer affluent white students seeking admission.

Here’s the thing. Birthrates have been declining for some time, particularly among families who can afford to pay for advanced education. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported two months ago that the numbers of births are at new low, have been declining for a decade, and likely will continue to do so. … “Unless something unexpected intervenes, the confluence of current demographic changes foretells an unprecedented reduction in postsecondary demand about a decade ahead,” writes (Nathan D.) Grawe, whose book energized conversations college leaders have been having for the past several years. … Leaders at public colleges, particularly ones not well supported by their legislatures, are trying to expand the pool of clientele. Online education is one idea. Going after out-of-state and foreign students, who pay full freight, is another.

LSU President F. King Alexander told Ballard that LSU wants to grow by around 5,000 more students. With Louisiana’s population stagnant, reaching that goal means the state will need to do more to recruit, retain and make higher education affordable for traditionally underserved populations, including nontraditional students and people of color.

Saints weigh in on jury amendment
As early voting for the Nov. 6 elections kicks off on Tuesday, two players for the division-leading New Orleans Saints are the latest to weigh in on behalf of Amendment 2, the ballot measure that would raise the standard for conviction in felony jury trials. Writing for Nola.com/The Times-Picayune, Demario Davis and Benjamin Watson said it’s time for Louisiana to join 48 other states and the federal government by requiring unanimous juries instead of allowing 10-2 verdicts.

Allowing non-unanimous juries to convict in Louisiana has led to terrible injustices. Louisiana has the second-highest rate of wrongful convictions in the nation, and Orleans Parish has the highest exoneration rate of any county in the nation. Non-unanimous juries have played a huge part in that travesty. Take the case of Travis Hayes. He was only 17 when the government accused him of driving the getaway car after a deadly robbery. At trial, two jurors, including the only African-American member of the jury, voted to acquit Hayes. But 10 jurors were enough to sentence Hayes to life in prison. Eight years later, a judge threw out Hayes’ conviction after DNA evidence exonerated him.

History’s worst oil spill
An uncapped oil well once operated by Taylor Energy has been spewing up to 700 barrels of oil into the Gulf of Mexico every day for 14 years – a slow-motion disaster that is on the verge of being one of history’s largest oil spills. The Washington Post’s Darryl Fears reports that no one has been held accountable for the disaster, and that the public has mostly been kept in the dark by the companies and the federal government.

No law compels the companies or the federal government to raise public awareness, but the Clean Water Act clearly calls for citizen involvement. Environmentalists took Taylor Energy to court. In their lawsuit, the conservationists called the agreement between Taylor Energy and the federal government a secret deal “that was inconsistent with national policy.” That policy, they argued, was made clear in the Clean Water Act, which mandates “public participation in the … enforcement of any regulation.” Citizen participation, the act says, “shall be provided for, encouraged and assisted.” Taylor Energy and the Coast Guard — which is part of a Unified Command of federal agencies that includes the Interior Department, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency — did not live up to the policy. In fact, the public wasn’t made aware of the spill even after a private firm tested fish in the area and submitted an assessment to Taylor Energy in 2009 that said “there is an acceptable risk to humans if fish from the … area are consumed.” “Taylor has failed to provide the public with information regarding the pace and extent of the oil leaks and Taylor’s efforts to control the leaks,” the lawsuit said.

The stakes on Nov. 6
A lot of analysis has focused on what will happen on Capitol Hill if Democrats, as polls suggest, capture control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the Nov. 6 elections. Much less attention has been paid to what would happen if the GOP retains control of both chambers, which looks increasingly likely. The New York Times’ David Leonhardt looks at what could happen to health care, tax policy and voting rights:

There is every reason to believe Republicans would then try to cut health care funding more deeply. People in Republican circles told me that they did not anticipate a new attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act. “I would expect them to make some kind of run on health care again,” Ryan Streeter of the conservative American Enterprise Institute said, “but I would be surprised if they tried for full repeal.” … The only major piece of legislation signed by Trump was such a tax cut. Next year, there could be more cuts. One possibility would be the repeal of the estate tax, which applies to only a tiny fraction of the wealthiest households, said Jeffrey Miron of Harvard and the Cato Institute. Another possibility would be a technical change in inflation measurement, resulting in a large cut in investment taxes. … The most tempting Republican legislation may be one that involves political power rather than any specific policy area. Over the past decade, the party has become much more aggressive about restricting voting access, especially for Democratic-leaning groups like African-Americans and Native Americans.

Number of the Day
7.5 – Percentage-point drop in total number of college students in Louisiana by the mid-2020s. (Source: The Advocate)