Having failed to push a health care repeal bill through Congress, President Donald Trump used his executive authority Thursday to destabilizing health insurance markets in two significant ways: First, he signed an executive order making way for cheap “association health plans” that could lure young, healthy adults away from more robust marketplace plans. Then, the White House announced an end to the government subsidies paid to insurers that cover the costs of deductibles and copayments for low-income enrollees. Josh Dawsey and Paul Demko at Politico report on the implications for state insurance markets:

Trump has threatened for months to cut off the payments, deriding them as a “bailout” for insurers. California, the country’s most successful Obamacare marketplace, added a 12.5 percent surcharge this week on silver plans as a hedge against the possibility the subsidies would be pulled. By loading them on silver plans, taxpayers will pick up the cost. Some insurers are also likely to sue the Trump administration over the failure to make payments that they believe they’re entitled to under the Affordable Care Act. Insurers will have the option to try to adjust their rates or pull out of the markets immediately when the CSR payments end. That’s because the contracts insurance companies signed to offer Obamacare plans have an “out” if the payments stop.

The cost of “free” prison labor

The sheriff of Caddo Parish, Steve Prator, is facing national criticism for remarks he made last week condemning Louisiana’s criminal justice reforms because they will reduce his supply of free inmate labor. Nola.com/The Times Picayune reporter Julia O’Donoghue looks at the way non-violent offenders serve as a cash cow for the state’s sheriffs, who get paid by the state to house them and also make money from work-release programs:

Inmates pick up trash off the side of the road, cook and clean the local jail or other government facilities. Judging from Prator’s comments, his office appears to use inmate labor to maintain its fleet of vehicles. It’s not clear whether he would have to pay someone to do those jobs if the state prisoners weren’t available. Sheriffs also run many of the state prison system’s work release programs. Inmates on work release are often reaching the end of their sentence, and they work for private businesses such as restaurants, farms and agricultural operations. They are paid, but sheriffs are allowed to garnish a good chunk — often more than half — of their wages.… The wage garnishment has increased in recent years to offset budget cuts, according to the Louisiana Sheriffs’ Association.

Elements of the criminal justice reform package passed by the legislature earlier this year will reduce over incarceration of nonviolent offenders and reinvest in those released from jail. The New York Times’ Jonah Bromwich reports:

In an interview Thursday, Secretary James Le Blanc of the Louisiana Department of Public Safety and Corrections clarified that all the people being released on Nov. 1 were neither violent nor sex offenders. … He emphasized that Louisiana’s prison population was down by 5,000 since 2013, and said that the package of reforms would free up space and funding for mental health treatment and “all the other things that we need.”

Columnist Jarvis DeBerry offers his take:

You probably haven’t thought about this, but if Louisiana goes through with reducing the number of people it incarcerates, then we’re going to be left with a crisis of unwashed police cruisers. This is not a trivial concern.  It’s important that our police cars be kept shiny and clean – even if it takes keeping families apart to accomplish the goal.

Industrial jobs coming soon

Retired LSU economist Loren Scott has released his annual predictions about the future of Louisiana’s economy. He says that several large industrial projects are slated to bring long term employment and economic growth to Louisiana. Hospital expansions, the travel economy, chemical plants and natural energy refineries are on the list of projects that span the state. The Advocate’s Ted Griggs reports:

Louisiana is expected to add 12,000 jobs in 2018 and 22,300 in 2019, growth of 0.6 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively. While Lafayette and Houma-Thibodaux aren’t expected to start recovering from the oil slump until 2019, the state’s other seven metro areas will add jobs both years, the report said. “If our projections are on the mark, the state should reach 2,013,600 jobs in 2019, the first time it has exceeded 2,000,000 jobs on an annual basis in its history,” [economist Loren] Scott said in the report. By comparison, the Federal Reserve Board projects the U.S. economy will grow by 2 percent in 2018 and 1.8 percent in 2019.

Census critical to data equity

Demographic, economic and health data from the U.S. Census Bureau fuels the capacity and accuracy of social research in countless institutions, including the Louisiana Budget Project. Census data also determines the allocation of congressional seats and the distribution of federal funding to states. But inadequate funding for the Bureau, and growing public distrust of large data warehouses after the recent Equifax identity hack are raising concern that the 2020 count may be low. Heather Long at The Washington Post says that the most likely demographic to be overlooked are the poor.

Indivar Dutta-Gupta, a data expert and co-director of the Georgetown Center on Poverty and Inequality, is especially worried about a scenario where the government starts relying on commercial data collected from firms such as Experian, which typically undercount low-income people. “To know someone is between 25 and 40 is all commercial databases care about. That’s not good enough for the census,” said Dutta-Gupta. For Census 2020, the final process will come down to time and money. Already, the census has been forced to scale back some of its pilot tests and early outreach efforts because of a lack of funding this year. Congress is now debating the funding level for 2018.

Number of the Day

33 – Percentage of transgender Louisianans who reported living in poverty in 2015. (National Center for Transgender Equality)